Proven Risk Management: Was the 2025 DAX Crash Predictable?

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2026 AUG 12 (NewsRx) — By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Daily News — Data detailed on risk management have been presented. According to news originating from Athens, Greece, by NewsRx correspondents, research stated, “In this article, we investigate whether the crash of the German DAX index following the U.S. tariff announcement in April 2025 is consistent with pre-existing endogenous market fragility rather than a purely exogenous shock.”

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from University of West Attica: “The analysis is conducted within the Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) framework using the Filimonov-Sornette (FS) specification, complemented by shrinking-window estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck residual diagnostics, surrogate time-series analysis, and a GARCH-based Monte Carlo false-positive assessment. The results reveal a statistically stable critical period preceding the observed market collapse, within which the tariff announcement occurred and was followed by a pronounced market decline. Overall, the findings suggest that the market operated in a regime of elevated systemic fragility, where the tariff announcement may have acted as a triggering event within an already critical state. This study contributes to the literature on financial critical phenomena by providing evidence that LPPL-based critical windows may be interpreted as periods of heightened systemic vulnerability rather than precise crash forecasts.”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “From a risk management perspective, such periods may be informative for identifying conditions under which markets are particularly sensitive to external disturbances.”

For more information on this research see: Was the 2025 DAX Crash Endogenous? Evidence from the Log-Periodic Power Law Model. Risks, 2026,14(7):145. (Risks – http://www.mdpi.com/journal/risks). The publisher for Risks is MDPI AG.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.3390/risks14070145.

Our news editors report that more information may be obtained by contacting Pavlos I. Zitis, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, Egaleo, 12241 Athens, Greece. Additional authors for this research include Stelios M. Potirakis.

(Our reports deliver fact-based news of research and discoveries from around the world.)

The post Studies from University of West Attica in the Area of Risk Management Described (Was the 2025 DAX Crash Endogenous? Evidence from the Log-Periodic Power Law Model): Insurance – Risk Management appeared first on Insurance News | InsuranceNewsNet.

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